Swing the vote

Over the past months as I’ve talked about the coming election with friends or family I try to make the point that this election is deeply regional. It will come down to certain ridings and battles. The debates happening are different for people all over the country. It’s easy for me to say I want to vote one way knowing that I will vote in a riding in East Van vs. if I were to vote in Calgary.

Mulcair seemed to be spending a lot of time in the Lower Mainland because he knows that there are a lot of seats to be won there. He knows how the numbers shake out by region.

Then there is the sad fact that got us into this whole mess. If the Liberals had done better in the last election and not had their sad meltdown many of those seats would not have gone to the Conservatives. In many ridings battles between the Liberals and Conservatives will determine what we end up with. These are the swing ridings that matter more than anything else. A Huffington Post article about why we’re still being subjected to these Trudeau ads when the NDP are winning summed it up:

There are about 84 ridings that are Conservative–Liberal fights, 33 three-way fights among the Liberals, Tories and NDP, and about 30 ridings that are Conservative–NDP fights, data provided by the Liberals suggest.

A senior Liberal, requesting anonymity, said it is no surprise the Tories are still attacking Trudeau.

“The regions of the country where the election will be decided, the Conservatives are overwhelmingly in one-on-one fights with us, in particular in the GTA [Greater Toronto Area] but also in other parts of Ontario and in the lower mainland in British Columbia,” he said.

I hope that Justin Trudeau, who remains uninspired, and the Liberals understand the magnitude of those ridings and devote all the resources they can to them. I also hope that various progressive groups get together in those ridings and make some waves to encourage strategic voting. If there is going to be a different outcome than last time around the Liberals need to win key battles. The NDP need to hold Quebec and make gains in BC.

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